Predicting the future

It's been a common pastime since the first iron was smelted and the first wheel was crafted: human beings like to predict the future of technology.

But how can we predict what will come next? There are actually some pretty simple tools that we can use, and they're not terribly inaccurate. First, stop wishing. Most predictions of the future are based on wishful thinking. Everyone will have a jet pack, we'll all live on clouds and peace will reign... or not.

Cabin in the Woods needs an "altquel"

Sequels, prequels, reboots, remakes and franchise mergers are the meat of Hollywood's content-generating engine. From AvP to Rise of the Return of the Revenge of the Reinvented Reinstantiation, the modern cinema is all about rehashed revisionism. So, when I watched Cabin in the Woods, I immediately started to wonder: how can there be a sequel to this movie? Of course, I can't even explore why that's a difficult question without spoiling the film, and I won't do that in this posting. However, what I can say is that a sequel would have to be a very different story, and might not interest the same audience. A prequel could be interesting, but it might be slightly predictable, since we're told at a certain point in the film, pretty much exactly what has transpired before.

This is where I lit on the idea of the "altquel". That is, a sequel that follows the same events from the first film (perhaps from a slightly different perspective) up to a critical moment in the film, where a key even causes the two films to diverge. Essentially, it's the story of an alternate timeline or universe in which the same events lead up to very different results.

So why an altquel for Cabin in the Woods, specifically? Without indulging in spoilers, all I can say is that there is a moment in the film where we get a glimpse of what might have happened, had any one of several other actions been taken. It's a perfect jumping-off point for an altquel!

But, Cabin in the Woods is really more than just a horror movie. It's a postmodern, revisionist take on the state of the horror movie genre, so why go with a straight altquel? Why not tell all of the stories at once? How? OK, that will require spoilers, so let me give you some time to go watch the movie, first...

Oil and Gold: What will the end of fossil fuels bring?

I just came across Charles Stross's posting about the end of fossil fuels boding the end of space exploration (or at least a massive slowdown).

I have to disagree, but the topic brought up a lot more thinking about fuel and our economy than it did about space, at least for me. The man he's quoting calls the end of fossil fuels an, "unprecedented transition," but of course, it's not. Our original fuel (and building!) material of choice was wood. When wood ran out (understand that when we talk about a resource "running out," we mean that it became difficult enough to use that it was no longer the ideal source) we moved on to a combination of iron and oil. Interestingly enough, this lead to a massive explosion in both out economy and technological growth. One could argue that if wood were a much more rapidly replenished resource, we might not have had a space race, or at least it might have come much later.

So, what will the end of fossil fuels bring? We can't really know, but one thing it won't bring is the end of our desire to expand, learn and explore. Will that be in space, or will we decide to go to the bottom of the oceans or into the Earth's crust first? I don't know. We have a lot of 3-dimensional territory to explore and exploit. What I do know is that running out of oil will be a fast process when viewed in the long term, but probably slow enough that we'll transition to something new, just as we did before.

World of Warcraft: Cataclysm, Maelstrom and Goblins

So the scuttlebutt is currently that the next expansion to World of Warcraft will:

* Be announced at BlizzCon in August
* Be titled "World of Warcraft: Cataclysm"
* Involve the Maelstrom (that big swirly thing and associated regions in the middle of the world map of Azeroth)
* Be released sometime in 2010

So, what do we know about the Maelstrom? Well, it's one feature left over from the so-called "Great Sundering" which occurred about 10,000 years prior to the current day in WoW, and currently houses the city of Nazjatar, home city of the Naga and Queen Azshara. They are, in turn, opposed by the Makrura in their capital city of Mak'aru.

Outside of the Maelstrom lie a few locations of interest which would likely be a part of any expansion involving this region. Collectively these are known as the South Seas and include a number of interesting locales, but none more important to the rest of Azeroth than Kezan, home of the Goblins of Azeroth's main city, Undermine.

So we have the greatest of the Night Elf antagonists (now that Illidan has been killed), Azshara. We have the Goblin capital, and we have the numerous islands of the South Seas. So what can we tell about an expansion involving all of these? Here's what I think is coming:

Goblins will be a playable race. I'm not the first to think of this, but I'm pretty sure it's coming. I believe that this will be the case because they have very explicitly been a huge part of WoW since launch at every level. They have outposts in starter areas like the Barrens, mid-level areas like STV and Tanaris, Outland, Northrend... everywhere! They exist as level 1-80 NPCs. This makes them unique in WoW in terms of being a non-playable race that are heavily involved in every area of the game. Their homeland was also one of the earliest concepts for the game.

Now that Blizzard has added faction-switching to the game, it seems pretty clear that they're clearing the way for a future with more fluidity between the factions, and a neutral Goblin race would definitely be in line with that. Of course, players can't be neutral (PvP would be rather messy). Instead, some factions of Goblins will have to ally themselves with the Horde and others with the Alliance, while the bulk of them continue to maintain their neutrality. I suspect that Undermine will be a Dalaran/Shattrath-like hub city, supporting a thriving population of players and NPCs, and perhaps solidifying the neutral auction house as the primary venue for trade in the game?

But, I digress. Back to the Goblins. I suspect that there will be no new hero class in Cataclysm. Why? Because Blizzard is bending under the weight of balancing PvP as it is, and every class added represents 3 new talent trees full of possible over-powered or under-powered PvP and PvE interactions with the existing classes. A new hero class would also allow players to have high-level Goblins on day one, making all other Goblin classes far less likely to be played during the first few months of release. Instead, I expect they're going to skip an expansion or bring in a hero class in a later patch. The Goblins will certainly be Warriors and Rogues. Those just make obvious sense. Priests, Mages and Warlocks are also likely. Beyond that, we can clearly say that they won't be Druids or Paladins. Shaman isn't in keeping with the lore, I believe, but they could probably come up with a reason to do it. Death Knight is possible, but unlikely for the reasons stated above.

They will likely start in new areas, specific to their chosen faction, and will either end up going to Undermine or directly to the old world via airship around level 20 (similar to the way Blood Elves and Draenei worked in The Burning Crusade). This means that, outside of Undermine itself, Blizzard will only have to create four zones (or perhaps two large zones with Alliance and Horde sub-areas) to support the new Goblins as they level.

Now, the big question: when? My guess is aggressive to say the least: early 2010. Let me lay out a likely timeline:

August 2009: 3.2
October 2009: 3.3 / Icecrown raid on the Lich King
December-February 2010: 4.0 alpha/beta testing begins
February-March 2010: 4.0 lands
March-April 2010: Cataclysm lands about 1 month after 4.0

My guess would be that they will raise the level cap 5 or 10 levels (I don't think they want to keep cranking it up 10 levels every expansion, though... it could even be zero!) Then there will be a series of patched-in dungeons much like the previous expansions. At least one of these will be Uldum, wherein we will learn that Goblins were actually created by the Titans, much the same as Dwarves, and that they too suffer the "curse of flesh". Note that this was foreshadowed by Blizzard's Drysc who said, "I find the door still interesting as something has obviously broken out. Was there something meant to be contained within Uldum, to be forgotten, that's escaped?" Yes indeed, folks, something was contained therein, and it escaped.

The Eye of the Maelstrom itself will probably be an open zone, but Nazjatar will likely be the final raid dungeon of the expansion with the fight against Azshara culminating the content.

So I've stuck my neck out far enough... I'll sit back now and see what comes.

Note: images in this post are owned by Blizzard, with special thanks to WoWWiki, which is where I got them.